It's sad, but true. Germany - “the” car nation - is about to stop the ramp-up of electric cars in Europe. The ill-considered stop of the scrapping bonus at the end of 2023 is also causing great damage in Europe. The proportion of new battery-electric cars is also declining in Europe. Europe is thus falling further and further behind China in the development of climate-friendly mobility. In addition to the financial burden placed on electric cars by the ban on premiums, there is also the talk of many conservative politicians who paint a flowery future for the combustion engine and praise syn-fuels, for which there is no industrial concept to date, in a dreamlike manner. In addition, the EU is casting doubt on the end of the combustion engine from 2025 in a media-effective manner and artificially increasing the price of electric cars from China by imposing tariffs. It is a toxic mixture from Berlin and Brussels that will cause great damage to Germany as a car location in the long term.
These statements are substantiated and reinforced by the half-year sales figures for all-electric new cars (BEV) in the major global markets. Around two thirds of the 75.5 million new cars sold worldwide in 2023 were sold in the major global passenger car markets.
In the EU, 1.5 million BEVs were sold in 2023, i.e. 14.6% of all new cars were BEVs. In the USA, there were just 1.2 million BEVs, or 7.7% of all new cars were BEVs. In China, on the other hand, an impressive 4.9 million BEVs were sold in 2023. The market share was 22.6%. China leads the world and can therefore exploit considerable economies of scale for its car industry. Electric cars are therefore cheaper to produce than in Germany, for example. China is the country with the largest battery production capacity and therefore also the most cost-effective lithium-ion battery cells.
That's why prices are lower in China and not because of some mysterious subsidies that the EU Commission claims - so far without any public evidence.
Where few electric cars are sold, the important domestic advantage in the car industry is missing. It's like in soccer, if you don't have a home advantage in the Bundesliga, you get relegated. In 2023, the EU's home advantage was not very pronounced. The sales figures are too low to achieve the important scales, i.e. volume advantages.
Germany destroys the scales in 2024
The table below shows what will happen in 2024. In China, the BEV share of new cars is rising rapidly and reached 25.7% in the first half of the year. Added to this are plug-ins, which make up almost half of new energy vehicles (NEVs). The Chinese combine BEVs, plug-ins and fuel cell drives to form NEVs - New Energy Vehicles. The share of NEVs is now over 50%, meaning that more than every second car currently sold in China is an NEV. And NEVs need powerful lithium-ion cells. China's cost advantage in electromobility is thus being further extended, while Europe is falling further behind.
It is hardly surprising that the dominance of battery factories in China is constantly increasing and that production in Europe is “starving”, i.e. suffering from a lack of orders. The reason in the EU is Germany. This is shown in the next table.
In the EU, the share of BEVs fell from 14.6% to 12.5% in H1 2024. And the reason is Germany. In H1, 36,119 fewer BEVs were sold in Germany than in the previous year and this trend is continuing, as the latest figures from the KBA show. In important car markets such as France, Italy, Spain and the UK, there were significant increases in BEV sales in H1 2024 - except in Germany. The EU as a whole sold 9,124 more BEVs in H1 2024 than in the previous year. Germany is preventing the ramp-up of electromobility in the EU. So Germany has a very sad black Peter. Berlin, in conjunction with the talk of many conservative politicians and the EU's customs capers, is causing massive damage to the German car industry and at the same time weakening the fight against climate change.
Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Director CAR - Center Automotive Research – Bochum
