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GER - Goldman cuts aluminum forecast on weaker developed economies

Goldman Sachs Group Inc lowered its estimates for aluminum prices through 2013 citing weaker growth in developed economies.

Analyst of Goldman Mr Sal Tharani and Mr Sandeep SM said that the metal will trade at USD 1.18 a pound next year down from a previous forecast of USD 1.28 and before rebounding to USD 1.22 in 2013 below an earlier estimate of USD 1.30. The 2011 forecast was lowered to USD 1.16 from USD 1.18.

Aluminum has the highest beta to global economic growth and thus could be most impacted by macro weakness. We do not expect a major leg down in aluminum price as it is already trading at close to its marginal cost. Copper is favored by Goldman because of its superb supply demand fundamentals.

Mr Tharani and Mr SM said that copper supply disruptions will amount to at least 8% of total production loss this year, compared to 4% to 5% we had expected earlier in the year. Chinese warehouses have significantly depleted their copper stocks and opening of positive arbitrage between the China and London Metal Exchange prices could mean increase in copper imports into China. Demand for industrial metals will remain fairly healthy, driven by emerging markets.

Sourced from www.worldal.com

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