...... predicted the State Information Center
in a Monitoring and Warning Report on Business Climate of Chinese Economy.
The forecast is made on the basis of the strong pickup of coinciding composite index, an indicator comprehensively reflecting the macro economic operation, and rise of the pioneering composite
index, an indictor describing the future development trend of the economy, in the first three months of this year.
Among indicators for the coinciding composite index, the industrial added value, narrow money supply and electricity production in the first three months of this year all grew remarkably faster than in the year earlier period, and surpassed the peak in this round of economic expansion, except that after the seasonal adjustment, the growth of fixed asset investment kept declining.
Among indicators for the pioneering composite index, the output of steel and pig iron grew sharply, pulling up the growth of the index.
In view of the current economic operation trend, the coinciding composite index and the pioneering composite index will further rise, and the macro economy faces a risk of transforming from overgrowth to overheating, the report noted.
The judgment is made on the basis of four factors. First of all, the fixed-asset investment is likely to rebound; secondly, the pressure on price hike remains big; thirdly, the trade surplus will keep expanding; and fourthly, the task of saving energy and reducing pollutant emission will become harder.