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GER - Assessment of the situation by German suppliers with clear signs of stabilization

German suppliers expect the business climate to improve again slightly in the next six months. Although only one in four suppliers expects a better business climate, taking into account seasonal effects, which will come to bear regardless of the current Covid-19 pandemic, the balance of expectations increases from 12.4 points to 15.4 points.

It is particularly encouraging that the current situation is assessed much more positively in October than in the previous months. The balance for assessing the current situation has increased by a clear 17.9 points compared to the previous month. With a value of -9.3, the assessment of the situation by German suppliers is approaching the March level. Although these assessments have to be viewed against the background of the low starting level of the past few months and the seasonal effects, the business climate in all supplier sectors seems to be stabilizing.

The rapid increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the past few days within Germany and its neighboring countries, however, puts these assessments on shaky legs. In this tense and very dynamic phase, the world markets react very nervously. In addition, the political discussion and the measures to combat the pandemic change almost daily, so that the expectations of German suppliers can change within a short time and may have to be revised after a few days. Renewed lockdowns can no longer be completely ruled out and endanger the catching-up process at the beginning of the cold season.

The supply industry business climate index is determined by the supply industry working group ArGeZ in cooperation with the Ifo Institute, Munich. It is based on a survey of around 600 companies and covers the sectors of the foundry industry, aluminum industry, plastics processing, steel and metal processing, non-ferrous metal industry, rubber industry and technical textiles, which are combined in the supply industry working group.

The chart, with corrected seasonally adjusted data, is available for download from www.argez.de.


 

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